Trumps Truce
My View
After two days of intense negotiations in London, President Trump announced that a deal between the U.S. and China to restore the trade war truce is “done,” subject to final approval by him and Chinese President Xi Jinping. The agreement revives a Geneva truce that had broken down over disputes about Chinese export restrictions on rare earths and U.S. export controls. The deal includes China supplying rare earths up front and the U.S. allowing Chinese students access to U.S. universities.
“OUR DEAL WITH CHINA IS DONE, SUBJECT TO FINAL APPROVAL WITH PRESIDENT XI … AND ME ”
– Donald J Trump, US Presient
This deal appears to be a strategic reset rather than a full resolution. On a macro level, easing tensions and restoring trade flows should help reduce inflationary pressures, supply chain disruptions, and investor uncertainty. At the micro level, firms dependent on rare earths and inputs from China could see input costs decline and operations stabilize, but many export control and tariff rules are still in flux, so risk remains. From a management perspective, companies will need to watch closely for how the deal is implemented, ensure flexibility in supply sourcing, and communicate clearly with investors about exposures to tariffs, export controls, and geopolitical risk — a lot of the benefits will depend on compliance and reciprocity
Apple AI
My View
Apple announced that it will for the first time let app developers access its on-device AI models, under the banner of Apple Intelligence. The models run locally on recent iPhones, enabling features like live translation of calls/messages, enhanced Visual Search, and summarising text — with an emphasis on privacy (no cloud dependency). Developers can test these features now; full rollout to consumers is expected in the autumn .
“ Opening its AI models to third parties would ‘ignite a whole new wave of intelligent experiences in the apps users rely on every day ”
– Craig Federighi
This is a cautious but smart move by Apple: by giving developers access to local models, they improve the flexibility and appeal of the Apple ecosystem while keeping privacy and security front and centre. Micro-wise, it allows apps to offer more immersive, intelligent features without waiting on cloud-based AI (lower latency, fewer data privacy concerns). Macro-wise, this shows how Apple is trying to catch up in the AI arms race in a way that plays to its strengths (hardware + privacy) rather than going head-on with cloud giants. For management, the key will be ensuring that the models are powerful enough to impress while still running efficiently on devices, and crafting revenue models (premium features, etc.) that don’t alienate users or developers.
Israeli Attacks
My View
Recent Israeli airstrikes on Tehran have stirred up deep memories among many Iranians of the brutal Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s. Civilians in Tehran describe panic, fear, and a lack of safety infrastructure—no shelters, no air-raid alarms, and limited protection—forcing people to improvise refuge in interior rooms or under stairs. Alongside death and destruction (military targets, scientists, and civilians hit), the attacks prompted long gas station queues and concern over energy disruption. Political reactions are mixed: some rally around the regime, others criticise it for its regional actions and perceived negligence at home.
“ I remember how we would take shelter in car parks of tall buildings during the Iraq war. But times have changed. Some people do not even have access to basement space these days ”
– Morteza, Tehran resident
This moment is dangerous — it isn’t just about bombs, it’s about memory, fear, and legitimacy. From a macro perspective, striking at Tehran so visibly risks inflaming both domestic unrest in Iran and regional escalation: governments nearby will be watching closely, and international condemnation alongside polarisation may grow. On a micro level, everyday life for civilians has shifted suddenly: shortages, fear, loss of trust in authorities to protect basic safety. For management and governance, this highlights a severe deficiency in civil protection infrastructure: public safety systems (alarms, shelters, credible emergency guidance) must be bolstered, or risk both physical danger and loss of moral authority. The Iranian government may attempt to use national unity against external threat to shore up support, but in doing so it may exacerbate domestic fractures—especially if people perceive the regime spent more on regional ambitions than on citizen wellbeing
Hong Kongs Rate Slumps
My View
Over the past month, Hong Kong’s overnight rates have stayed just above zero percent, even though its currency is tightly pegged to the US dollar. Because borrow-costs in Hong Kong have collapsed while US rates remain high (around 4+%), it creates a strong arbitrage opportunity—borrow in HK, invest in US. Yet, instead of a flood of trades exploiting this gap, the low rates have persisted. Officials have been forced to intervene via currency market operations and inject liquidity into Hong Kong to manage the situation
“ For the past month or more, overnight interest rates in Hong Kong have been stuck just above 0 percent … Every evening … On Friday it stood, again, at 0.01 per cent ”
– FT
This isn’t just a quirk—it’s a canary in the coal mine. The fact that arbitrage hasn’t run its course suggests risk aversion is high among investors and financial firms: people are spooked, even when “easy money” appears. At the macro level, it signals fragility in markets—if something even as obvious as a rate gap doesn’t trigger normal flows, then what will happen if the next shock hits? On the micro/business side, firms dependent on interest rate differentials or global capital flows may find themselves blindsided. Management should recognise that liquidity might not be reliable, risk limits are tighter, and that models based on “normal” market reactions may be underestimating vulnerability
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